CODE IN TOKYO

I Feel My Position as an Engineer May Change Within the Next Year

The limited-time access period for Fable 5 is almost over.

Since I have the opportunity, I have been using almost all of the tokens allocated to me. I have asked it to handle heavy refactoring, design decisions, and other tasks that I would normally approach with more caution.

It is clearly smart.

That said, whether I will keep using it in the same way is another question. Considering the cost and token consumption, Fable 5 will probably become something I reserve for important tasks. For everyday work, I will continue using the same models as before and leave only the truly difficult work to a higher-end model.

The real question is how long that distinction will last.

A Year From Now, Fable 5-Level AI May No Longer Be Rare

Given the speed of AI progress, I think there is a strong possibility that, within a year, Fable 5-level capability will either be available with far fewer restrictions or offered much more cheaply through equivalent LLMs.

At the very least, I do not expect the current pricing and usage limits to remain unchanged.

When that happens, the value of existing engineers will fall further.

More precisely, the value of simple programmers will fall.

Taking specifications and writing code. Modifying existing code. Writing tests. Refactoring.

This kind of work has already been heavily affected by AI. The difference compared with a year ago is obvious.

Some people say, “AI cannot design systems, so engineers will be fine.” After using Fable 5, I am not that optimistic.

To be honest, there are already situations where it is strong enough to outperform humans even at the design level.

Of course, that assumes the human gives appropriate instructions.

But viewed from the other side, this means that the value is shifting away from design skill itself and toward the ability to decide what the AI should think about.

Will There Be Large-Scale Layoffs?

For the past few years, people have repeatedly said that AI will cause large-scale layoffs of engineers.

So far, at least in the Japanese IT industry, I do not think we have seen such a dramatic change. Many companies still have staffing shortages, and engineering job postings have not disappeared.

However, I feel that the direction will become much clearer over the next year or so.

If Fable 5-level AI becomes available at a low cost, will companies still need the same number of programmers they have today?

I strongly doubt it.

AI does not need to replace humans completely.

If work that used to require ten people can be done by five, then five people are no longer needed.

The frightening moment is not the day AI surpasses humans.

It is the day companies realize, “Do we really need this many people?”

This Next Year Matters for Me Too

This is not only a problem for young engineers.

For someone like me in my fifties, it feels even more urgent.

Within the next year, I think I need to move from being a simple engineer into “something else.”

What exactly is that “something else”?

I do not have a clear answer yet.

It is probably close to IT consulting. Instead of selling technology itself, I would listen to a company’s problems and think about how to solve them using AI and systems.

Another option is to launch my own service.

But the probability of success there is extremely low. The idea of an independent developer building a service and making it a hit is appealing, but in reality, far more services disappear without ever being used by anyone.

When I think about it that way, I suspect the answer may ultimately be a combination of IT and sales.

Understanding technology. Being able to use AI. And being able to talk with customers and bring in work.

If the only skill is writing code, AI will continue to become stronger.

But deciding what to sell, finding out what vague problems a customer has, and turning those problems into work by saying, “In that case, we should build something like this” still seems to remain on the human side, at least for now.

I have worked as a freelancer for about 15 years, but the next year may turn out to be more important than those previous 15 years.

One year from now, will I still be saying, “I am an engineer”?

Or will I be using a different title?

At the very least, I do not intend to survive by trying to write code better than Fable 5.

That is already a very difficult fight to win.

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I provide system development and technical consulting using AI, AWS, and Claude Code.

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