CODE IN TOKYO

Once You Fall Behind the Leading Pack, You May Never Catch Up—Why Being Second Still Matters in Research

A Small Step in Reusable Rocket Development

I recently saw news that JAXA had successfully conducted an experiment with a reusable rocket.

The rocket rose while firing its engines, controlled its attitude, and landed. The experiment was part of an effort to develop rockets that can eventually be used many times.

This time, it reached an altitude of about 11 meters.

Of course, that does not make the experiment a failure. Cutting-edge technologies are built through a series of small successes.

Even so, the news reminded me of footage I had seen from the United States. There, rockets have descended from much greater heights and landed autonomously. That work is also still evolving, but Japan nevertheless appeared to be following a path the United States had already traveled.

Japan Often Seems to Be Several Years Behind

That thought also brought gravitational-wave observatories to mind.

Japan has KAGRA, one of the world’s leading gravitational-wave observatories. However, it was the American LIGO project that made the first direct observation of gravitational waves, leading to a Nobel Prize.

When I look at science and technology today, I often feel that Japan is running several years behind the United States.

This can lead to an apparently reasonable argument: “If Japan is only following the United States, there is no reason to spend tax money on that research.”

I disagree.

Research Is Not Meaningful Only When You Finish First

Research and development is not a world in which only first place matters.

For one thing, frontier research often produces technologies that have little to do with its original objective. Many technologies now essential to everyday life emerged from space exploration, medical research, and other ambitious fields.

More importantly, research develops people.

Working at the frontier is how first-rate researchers are trained. It enables them to exchange ideas with leading scientists around the world on equal terms and to participate in international collaborations.

If a country abandons research because it believes it cannot win, it loses all of that as well.

Science and Technology Are Like a Marathon’s Leading Pack

I think of science and technology as a marathon’s leading pack.

Running at the front is difficult. Staying in second place is difficult too. It costs money, and the temptation to stop running is always there.

But once you fall completely away from the leading pack, returning is nearly impossible.

In a marathon, extraordinary effort might allow a runner to catch up. Science and technology are different. While one country stands still, the leaders keep moving. The gap does not shrink; it grows.

Japan does not necessarily have to be number one in every field. But it should remain close enough to see the backs of those at the front.

The Limits of “Selection and Concentration”

In Japan, we often hear about “selection and concentration”—directing limited resources toward a smaller number of priorities. Given finite budgets, some degree of focus is necessary.

However, if research is discarded simply because it will not generate an immediate profit, Japan risks becoming an unremarkable country in science and technology.

The terms “developed country” and “developing country” are used less often now, partly because they can be discriminatory or fail to reflect reality. I understand that concern.

But what ultimately distinguishes countries in technological terms?

Are they helping to lead the world, or are they mainly using what others have created?

This is not about claiming that one is morally superior to the other. Yet if a country continues reducing its investment in research and development, it becomes increasingly likely to end up in the latter position.

Japan spent many years as one of the countries leading the world. For that very reason, it should understand better than most why continuing research still matters even when you are in second place.

If Japan forgets that lesson, what it truly loses will not be a rocket or a telescope.

It may be giving up on being a country that creates its own future.

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