What Actually Happened to the Carriage Drivers

Honestly, I’m a little scared too.

Engineering is one of the jobs most exposed to AI. The “people who only write code” will likely shrink quite a lot in five years.

“Even if AI takes some jobs, new ones will emerge — so we’ll be fine.”

I’ve told myself that for a while. But lately, I’ve realized it’s half true and half a lie.

The reason I came to think this way is that I started looking more carefully at the classic example everyone reaches for — the carriage drivers.

The Carriage Drivers Did Not Become Auto Mechanics

“When cars spread, the carriage drivers lost their jobs. But new jobs appeared in their place — auto mechanics, gas stations, taxi drivers. So it’s fine.”

It’s a story you hear often.

But think about it more carefully.

The carriage drivers were craftsmen who had built their entire careers around handling horses. There is no way they suddenly learned engine mechanics and became auto mechanics.

In reality, most of those drivers could not transition into the new jobs. Losing a craft you’ve spent decades on at age 40 or 50, and starting over with a different technology — that has always been brutal, in any era.

The “new jobs” were enjoyed by the next generation. People who hadn’t yet chosen their careers stepped into the newly created professions.

So the structure of technological revolutions tends to look like this:

• Old jobs vanish, taking their incumbents down with them
• New jobs are picked up by the next generation
• The benefits cross only between generations, never within one

The Hand-Drafting Craftsmen Were the Same

The PC era followed the same pattern.

There used to be specialists for drafting, typesetting, and bookbinding. Once PCs spread, much of that work could be done by ordinary office workers.

“It became more convenient,” people said.

But the craftsmen of that time mostly disappeared. The new jobs that emerged — CAD operators, web designers — were taken up by the younger generation. The original craftsmen simply lost their work.

People casually say “you can adapt if you try.” But humans don’t change that easily. Especially when the lost job was tied to your own identity, it isn’t just a career change.

I’m Probably on the Driver’s Side Too

Up to here, I’ve been writing as if this is all about the past.

But honestly, I think I’m on the driver’s side this time.

The first wave of AI’s impact lands on white-collar work, especially on jobs that involve writing code. That’s exactly what I do.

Of course, I am genuinely cranking up my own productivity with AI. But assuming that means “I’m on the side that adapts” is probably just complacency.

Three years from now, five years from now — no one really knows how things shift.

When I used to say “we’ll be fine because new jobs will emerge,” I was half encouraging myself.

The ones who will actually enjoy those new jobs are probably the young people who haven’t chosen a career yet.

My generation? If we’re lucky, we make it across. If we’re not, we get knocked off.

Optimism Is a Story for the Next Generation

“New jobs will emerge” is not a lie.

But it is a message for those who haven’t yet chosen their path — not for those being knocked off right now.

For the affected generation, optimism offers no rescue. If anything, it works as an anesthetic that prevents people from facing their actual situation.

What we really need when discussing the AI era is not the future-generation message of “we’ll be fine because new jobs will emerge,” but the much harsher question of how the people living through this transition are supposed to survive it.

I’m inside that question too.